Predicting the Future

A warning from Michael Crichton on predicting THE FUTURE.

Let's think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?

But of course, within a few years, nobody rode horses except for sport. And in 2000, France was getting 80% its power from an energy source that was unknown in 1900. Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan were getting more than 30% from this source, unknown in 1900. Remember, people in 1900 didn't know what an atom was. They didn't know its structure. They also didn't know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet. interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS? None of this would have meant anything to a person in the year 1900. They wouldn't know what you are talking about.

Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it's even worth thinking about. Our models just carry the present into the future.

They're bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a moment's thought knows it.

The essay is called "Aliens Cause Global Warming" and one can find it in several places. EDIT 1/31/2014: Removed several dead links. Aliens Cause Global Warming

Technology and Privacy

There is a TED talk Margaret Gould Stewart: How YouTube thinks about copyright which describes, in a general, way the state of technology. YouTube/Google is able to review an incredible amount of data in order to determine if the information is copyrighted - and if it is what to do about it.

If you're concerned about privacy use this video as a stepping to stone to comprehend the future. Computer processing speed is doubling every 18 months. In less than twenty years processing power will be 1000 times greater than it is today. What currently takes Google, YouTube, the NSA one year will take about 8.5 hours. Or, put in another way, what now takes 24 hours will take a little under 3 minutes.

Oh to be able to comment on web pages

On my wish list for the web - once again -  is the ability to easily save web pages locally as a single file AND be able to highlight text and add notes to the existing page - all while within the browser.

The above can obviously be done by taking a screenshot and then adding text in Photoshop. That is not what I want. That is not what I need. No. The Christmas gift I want for this year is to be able to save and comment on web pages.

Future Technology, this is not far-fetched

Sight from Sight Systems on Vimeo.

So now Mind Reading is Possible

Welcome the singularity. It's 2012 and already we're developing commercial applications that involve mind reading. If we can "read minds" we can record thoughts and memories. The penseive of Harry Potter fame may be here before we know it.

Through the use of an algorithm formulated by Low, the iBrain reads brainwave activity and transmits it wirelessly back to a computer. As Dr. Low points out, the iBrain can collect data regardless of where a person is or what they are doing. For this reason it is a welcome alternative to the masses of electrodes and wires that hospitals and sleep labs generally use when assessing a patients brain activity.

[Stephen] Hawking was fitted with the head-band device and asked to “imagine that he was scrunching his right hand into a ball.” While he can’t actually move his hand, the motor cortex in his brain can still issue the command and generate electrical waves in his brain. The algorithm then translates these thoughts into signals, which show up on the monitor as spikes on a grid.

“We were looking for a change in the signal,” says Dr Low. “In January this year, we found it.”

The Francis Crick Memorial Conference, which takes place on July 7, discusses the topic of "Consciousness in humans and non-human animals" and will be the first time Hawking and Low deliver their findings to the public.

While many are hoping to see the famed astrophysicist speaking to us “through his brain” for the first time, it is unlikely that the technology has been refined to the point where this can be easily demonstrated. Instead, much of the research will be presented through video documentation.

While much of the publicity that Neurovigil has gained has been due to its close work with Stephen Hawking, Dr Low is quick to point out that the technology has been developed for everybody. That’s because the concept of “mind-mapping” with the iBrain is not limited to its use as an augmented communication device. In fact, the applications are so varied that it led to Dr Low refusing initial funding from venture capitalists. http://www.gizmag.com/ibrain-stephen-hawking-communicate-brainwaves/23182/

Privacy and Technology